Work · Helm demo

Development model

A working pro forma for a ground-up rental project: budget, construction draws, the construction loan and its interest reserve, lease-up, a refinance at stabilization and a sale. Change any assumption and every number, chart and table below recalculates.

Mill Creek Residences is an invented project and every figure is made up. The model is the one inside Helm, the planning platform we use for our own work.

Showing the demo assumptions.

Total development cost

$59.1M

$246,351 per unit

Yield on cost

6.89%

6.33% untrended

Development spread

164 bps

over a 5.25% cap

Levered IRR

20.1%

12.7% unlevered

Equity multiple

2.12x

$23.3M profit

Value at stabilization

$77.6M

$18.5M over cost

ASSUMPTIONS

Project

PROJECT

LAND CLOSING

GROSS SF

Unit mix and income

Unit mix
TYPE	UNITS	SF	RENT




Total	240	845	$2,269

RETAIL SF

RETAIL $/SF/YR

OTHER INCOME /UNIT/MO

Parking, pets, fees

Schedule

PREDEVELOPMENT

CONSTRUCTION

LEASE-UP

HOLD AFTER STABILIZING

Budget

LAND

LAND CLOSING COSTS

HARD COST $/GSF

CONTINGENCY

Of hard costs

SOFT COSTS

Of hard costs

MARKETING /UNIT

DEVELOPER FEE

Of costs before land and financing

Operations

RENT GROWTH /YR

EXPENSE GROWTH /YR

STABILIZED VACANCY

LEASE-UP CONCESSIONS

OPEX /UNIT/YR

Before taxes and management

TAXES /UNIT/YR

MANAGEMENT

Of collected income

RESERVES /UNIT/YR

Construction loan

LOAN TO COST

RATE

ORIGINATION FEE

Refinance at stabilization

VALUATION CAP RATE

MAX LOAN TO VALUE

MIN DSCR

RATE

AMORTIZATION (YEARS)

0 for interest only

CLOSING COSTS

Sale

EXIT CAP RATE

SELLING COSTS

240 UNITS · 202,800 NRSF · EAST AUSTIN, TX (FICTIONAL)

Schedule

PredevelopmentJan 2025 – Feb 2025
ConstructionMar 2025 – Aug 2026
Lease-upSep 2026 – May 2027
Stabilized holdJun 2027 – Dec 2029
Milestones

Construction loan closes · Mar 2025
Refinance · Jun 2027
Sale · Dec 2029

Sources and uses

Uses of funds
USES	AMOUNT	PER UNIT	SHARE
Land and closing	$10,999,800	$45,833	18.6%
Hard costs	$36,414,000	$151,725	61.6%
Hard cost contingency	$1,820,700	$7,586	3.1%
Soft costs	$4,151,196	$17,297	7.0%
Marketing and lease-up	$852,000	$3,550	1.4%
Developer fee	$1,405,232	$5,855	2.4%
Construction loan fee	$384,308	$1,601	0.7%
Interest reserve and lease-up carry	$3,097,112	$12,905	5.2%
Total development cost	$59,124,348	$246,351	$248/GSF

SOURCES

35%

65%

Equity $20.7M
Construction loan $38.4M

Equity, drawn first: $20,693,522 · 35%
Construction loan: $38,430,826
Peak loan balance: $38,430,826
Interest and lease-up carry: $3,097,112

Capital in the deal

Equity invested and debt outstanding, by monthEquity investedDebt outstanding

Operations

Effective gross income and NOI, by monthEffective gross incomeNOI

Stabilized NOI, next 12 months: $4,074,577
Untrended NOI (today's rents and costs): $3,742,483
Average rent: $2,269/mo · $32/SF/yr
Yield on cost: 6.89%
Untrended yield on cost: 6.33%
Building efficiency (NRSF / GSF): 86.8%

Refinance

Value at 5.25% cap: $77,610,996
Max at 60% LTV: $46,566,598
Max at 1.25x DSCR: $58,208,247
Permanent loan (sized by LTV): $46,566,598
Construction loan payoff: ($38,430,826)
Closing costs: ($465,666)
Cash returned to equity: $7,670,106
LTV · DSCR · debt yield: 60.0% · 1.56x · 8.8%

Sale

Forward NOI after Dec 2029: $4,397,900
Price at 5.50% cap: $79,961,826
Selling costs: ($1,199,427)
Loan payoff: ($46,566,598)
Net proceeds to equity: $32,195,801
Equity in · out: $20.7M · $44.0M
Levered IRR · multiple: 20.1% · 2.12x
Unlevered IRR: 12.7%

$ THOUSANDS · CALENDAR YEARS

Annual cash flow

Annual cash flow in thousands of dollars
YEAR	DEV. SPEND	FEES + INTEREST	INCOME	EXPENSES	NOI	DEBT SERVICE	TO EQUITY
2025	(37,121)	(591)	–	–	–	–	(20,694)
2026	(18,134)	(2,379)	603	(797)	(194)	–	–
2027	(387)	(1,230)	6,264	(2,935)	3,328	(1,521)	8,566
2028	–	–	7,247	(3,102)	4,145	(2,608)	1,538
2029	–	–	7,465	(3,195)	4,270	(2,608)	33,858
Total	(55,643)	(4,200)	21,579	(10,029)	11,550	(6,737)	23,268

To equity: contributions, operating cash flow after debt service, the refinance and the sale. Fees and interest before stabilization are paid from the loan's interest reserve.

LEVERED IRR

Sensitivity

Levered IRR by exit cap rate and hard cost change
EXIT CAP ↓ · HARD COSTS →	-10%	-5%	BASE	+5%	+10%
5.00%	29.8%	27.1%	24.5%	22.1%	19.7%
5.25%	27.7%	24.9%	22.3%	19.8%	17.5%
5.50%	25.6%	22.8%	20.1%	17.6%	15.2%
5.75%	23.5%	20.6%	18.0%	15.4%	13.0%
6.00%	21.5%	18.6%	15.8%	13.2%	10.8%

Monthly detail (60 months)

Monthly cash flow in thousands of dollars
MONTH	PHASE	SPEND	EQUITY	LOAN	DEBT BAL.	OCC.	NOI	TO EQUITY
Jan 2025	predevelopment	(11,622)	11,622	–	–	–	–	(11,622)
Feb 2025	predevelopment	(623)	623	–	–	–	–	(623)
Mar 2025	construction	(463)	847	–	–	–	–	(847)
Apr 2025	construction	(1,056)	1,056	–	–	–	–	(1,056)
May 2025	construction	(1,622)	1,622	–	–	–	–	(1,622)
Jun 2025	construction	(2,143)	2,143	–	–	–	–	(2,143)
Jul 2025	construction	(2,604)	2,604	–	–	–	–	(2,604)
Aug 2025	construction	(2,991)	177	2,815	2,815	–	–	(177)
Sep 2025	construction	(3,293)	–	3,311	6,125	–	–	–
Oct 2025	construction	(3,499)	–	3,538	9,663	–	–	–
Nov 2025	construction	(3,603)	–	3,666	13,329	–	–	–
Dec 2025	construction	(3,603)	–	3,689	17,018	–	–	–
Jan 2026	construction	(3,499)	–	3,608	20,627	–	–	–
Feb 2026	construction	(3,293)	–	3,426	24,052	–	–	–
Mar 2026	construction	(2,991)	–	3,147	27,199	–	–	–
Apr 2026	construction	(2,604)	–	2,780	29,979	–	–	–
May 2026	construction	(2,143)	–	2,337	32,316	–	–	–
Jun 2026	construction	(1,622)	–	1,830	34,146	–	–	–
Jul 2026	construction	(1,133)	–	1,354	35,500	–	–	–
Aug 2026	construction	(540)	–	769	36,269	–	–	–
Sep 2026	lease-up	(77)	–	440	36,709	10%	(128)	–
Oct 2026	lease-up	(77)	–	390	37,098	21%	(75)	–
Nov 2026	lease-up	(77)	–	339	37,437	31%	(22)	–
Dec 2026	lease-up	(77)	–	288	37,725	42%	31	–
Jan 2027	lease-up	(77)	–	236	37,961	53%	85	–
Feb 2027	lease-up	(77)	–	184	38,145	63%	139	–
Mar 2027	lease-up	(77)	–	131	38,276	74%	193	–
Apr 2027	lease-up	(77)	–	77	38,353	84%	247	–
May 2027	lease-up	(77)	–	77	38,431	95%	302	54
Jun 2027	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	335	7,788
Jul 2027	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	336	118
Aug 2027	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	337	119
Sep 2027	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	337	120
Oct 2027	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	338	121
Nov 2027	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	339	122
Dec 2027	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	340	123
Jan 2028	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	341	123
Feb 2028	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	342	124
Mar 2028	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	342	125
Apr 2028	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	343	126
May 2028	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	344	127
Jun 2028	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	345	128
Jul 2028	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	346	129
Aug 2028	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	347	129
Sep 2028	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	348	130
Oct 2028	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	348	131
Nov 2028	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	349	132
Dec 2028	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	350	133
Jan 2029	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	351	134
Feb 2029	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	352	135
Mar 2029	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	353	135
Apr 2029	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	354	136
May 2029	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	354	137
Jun 2029	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	355	138
Jul 2029	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	356	139
Aug 2029	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	357	140
Sep 2029	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	358	141
Oct 2029	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	359	142
Nov 2029	stabilized	–	–	–	46,567	95%	360	142
Dec 2029	stabilized	–	–	–	–	95%	361	32,339